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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the role over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – with three in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now nearly double the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”