Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.